TY - UNPB

T1 - WP/082 The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

AU - Arndt, Channing

AU - Tarp, Finn

AU - Thurlow, James

N1 - JEL Classification: O13, O21, Q51, Q54

PY - 2012/9

Y1 - 2012/9

N2 - Unlike existing studies, we adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economywide model. Our results for Vietnam indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest, at least until 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce Vietnam’s national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are benefits from pre-emptive action, but also opportunity costs from precautionary adaptation investments.

AB - Unlike existing studies, we adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economywide model. Our results for Vietnam indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest, at least until 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce Vietnam’s national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are benefits from pre-emptive action, but also opportunity costs from precautionary adaptation investments.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - Climate Change

KW - uncertainty

KW - multi-sector

KW - CGE model

KW - Vietnam

M3 - Working paper

T3 - WIDER Working Paper

BT - WP/082 The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

PB - UNU-WIDER

CY - Helsinki

ER -