When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out

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Standard

When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out. / Damsbo-Svendsen, Søren; Hansen, Kasper M.

In: Electoral Studies, Vol. 81, 102573, 2023.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Damsbo-Svendsen, S & Hansen, KM 2023, 'When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out', Electoral Studies, vol. 81, 102573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102573

APA

Damsbo-Svendsen, S., & Hansen, K. M. (2023). When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out. Electoral Studies, 81, [102573]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102573

Vancouver

Damsbo-Svendsen S, Hansen KM. When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out. Electoral Studies. 2023;81. 102573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102573

Author

Damsbo-Svendsen, Søren ; Hansen, Kasper M. / When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out. In: Electoral Studies. 2023 ; Vol. 81.

Bibtex

@article{0ba69647b0144fe9957a1bd7d09d7ffc,
title = "When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out",
abstract = "Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather. Thus, bad weather exacerbates unequal democratic participation by pushing low-propensity voters to abstain. Efforts to include marginal voters therefore ought to be intensified during poor weather, and elections could even be moved to seasons with more pleasant weather to improve participatory equality.",
keywords = "Climate, Cost of voting, Electoral turnout, Individual-level voter panel, Local weather, Marginal voter, Participation",
author = "S{\o}ren Damsbo-Svendsen and Hansen, {Kasper M.}",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors",
year = "2023",
doi = "10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102573",
language = "English",
volume = "81",
journal = "Electoral Studies",
issn = "0261-3794",
publisher = "Pergamon Press",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out

AU - Damsbo-Svendsen, Søren

AU - Hansen, Kasper M.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather. Thus, bad weather exacerbates unequal democratic participation by pushing low-propensity voters to abstain. Efforts to include marginal voters therefore ought to be intensified during poor weather, and elections could even be moved to seasons with more pleasant weather to improve participatory equality.

AB - Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather. Thus, bad weather exacerbates unequal democratic participation by pushing low-propensity voters to abstain. Efforts to include marginal voters therefore ought to be intensified during poor weather, and elections could even be moved to seasons with more pleasant weather to improve participatory equality.

KW - Climate

KW - Cost of voting

KW - Electoral turnout

KW - Individual-level voter panel

KW - Local weather

KW - Marginal voter

KW - Participation

U2 - 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102573

DO - 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102573

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85145334944

VL - 81

JO - Electoral Studies

JF - Electoral Studies

SN - 0261-3794

M1 - 102573

ER -

ID: 338943687