Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models: Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters
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Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models : Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters. / Dahlgaard, Jens Olav; Hansen, Jonas Hedegaard; Hansen, Kasper M.; Bhatti, Yosef.
In: Political Analysis, Vol. 27, No. 4, 01.10.2019, p. 590-598.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models
T2 - Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters
AU - Dahlgaard, Jens Olav
AU - Hansen, Jonas Hedegaard
AU - Hansen, Kasper M.
AU - Bhatti, Yosef
PY - 2019/10/1
Y1 - 2019/10/1
N2 - Most nonexperimental studies of voter turnout rely on survey data. However, surveys overestimate turnout because of (1) nonresponse bias and (2) overreporting. We investigate this possibility using a rich dataset of Danish voters, which includes validated turnout indicators from administrative data for both respondents and nonrespondents, as well as respondents' self-reported voting from the Danish National Election Studies. We show that both nonresponse bias and overreporting contribute significantly to overestimations of turnout. Further, we use covariates from the administrative data available for both respondents and nonrespondents to demonstrate that both factors also significantly bias the predictors of turnout. In our case, we find that nonresponse bias and overreporting masks a gender gap of two and a half percentage points in women's favor as well as a gap of 25 percentage points in ethnic Danes' favor compared with Danes of immigrant heritage.
AB - Most nonexperimental studies of voter turnout rely on survey data. However, surveys overestimate turnout because of (1) nonresponse bias and (2) overreporting. We investigate this possibility using a rich dataset of Danish voters, which includes validated turnout indicators from administrative data for both respondents and nonrespondents, as well as respondents' self-reported voting from the Danish National Election Studies. We show that both nonresponse bias and overreporting contribute significantly to overestimations of turnout. Further, we use covariates from the administrative data available for both respondents and nonrespondents to demonstrate that both factors also significantly bias the predictors of turnout. In our case, we find that nonresponse bias and overreporting masks a gender gap of two and a half percentage points in women's favor as well as a gap of 25 percentage points in ethnic Danes' favor compared with Danes of immigrant heritage.
KW - administrative data
KW - measurement error
KW - validated turnout
KW - voter turnout
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85073221100
VL - 27
SP - 590
EP - 598
JO - Political Analysis
JF - Political Analysis
SN - 1047-1987
IS - 4
ER -
ID: 233656403