Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting

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This paper investigates whether wildfires are linked to increases in vote share for a green party in government. We argue that natural disasters move climate change action up on voters’ agendas, consequently affecting electoral behavior. Making use of the impact of an intense wildfire season in Sweden in 2018, we analyze changes in propensity to vote for a green governing party after experiencing wildfires in the election year. The Green party's vote share is significantly larger than expected in affected municipalities compared to unaffected municipalities, with an overall effect size of about 1 percentage point in the national election and 1.2 percentage points in the local election. These effect sizes are substantial given typical green party vote shares. Meanwhile, the incumbent Social Democratic party appears to have been electorally punished for the fires. The findings contribute to the literature on natural disasters and climate opinion, as well as on the impact of local conditions on electoral behavior.

Original languageEnglish
Article number102749
JournalElectoral Studies
Volume88
Number of pages12
ISSN0261-3794
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024

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Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Authors

    Research areas

  • Climate change, Economic voting, Green parties, Issue voting, Natural disasters, Political behavior

ID: 387108862