Climate election: The weather shapes who is voting and what they are voting for
A new study shows how climate disasters influences election results by making voters think about climate change. When the historic storm surge, Bodil, hit Denmark in 2013, thousands of people were directly affected and many had to flee their homes. When we are talking about climate change, an important question is how voters are going to respond to such experiences. More and more people experience extreme weather events, and it will be easier for society to adapt, if the voters respond to extreme weather by voting for parties and candidates that take climate challenges serious.
The study, which just came out in Political Behavior, focuses on Danish voters' electoral support for parties with a pro-environmental reputation and local election candidates who speak about climate in their campaign. In areas hit by flooding in 2013, support for pro-climate parties increased by two to three percentage points compared to areas that were spared. Pro-climate candidates also increased their support, but only in places hit by serious flooding. There, candidates who were close to the election threshold, increased their likelihood of being elected by around five percentage points. The results are good news for the climate, although the effects – even in severely affected areas – remain far too small to make a significant difference.
The weather also shapes which voters that turn out to vote in the first place. Kasper M. Hansen's and Søren Damsbo-Svendsen's research on the election weather's influence on electoral turnout was recently quoted in New York Times in relation to the US presidential election. The study from 2023, published in Electoral Studies, analyses the association between turnout and bad (rainy) weather. Through a meta analysis of the existing evidence and a larger, independent analysis, the study shows that the electoral turnout decreases by roughly one percentage point per centimeter of rain on Election Day. What is more important, it is particularly groups with lower and more variable turnout that are affected. The weather can, thus, distort who participates in elections and, ultimately, who is represented. Especially in a future with a warmer climate and more extreme weather.
Links
Article on storm surge and voting in Political Behavior
Contact
Kasper Møller Hansen
Professor
Department of Political Science
Mail: kmh@ifs.ku.dk
Phone: 35 32 33 92
Søren Damsbo-Svendsen
Postdoc
Department of Political Science
Mail: sdas@ifs.ku.dk
Phone: 35 32 14 46