TY - UNPB

T1 - The Head that Wears a Crown

T2 - The impact on civil war of the presidency shifting between ethnic groups

AU - Hansen, Bertel Teilfeldt

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - This paper documents a substantial positive effect on conflict onset of post-conflict elections that shift power over the state from one ethnic group to another. The paper argues that commitment problems arising from the presidency shifting between ethnic groups increase the risk of a new onset in countries that have recently experienced conflict. This proposition is tested using a two-way fixed effects model on an original, global dataset of the ethnicities of incoming and incumbent presidents between 1975 and 2010. The result is a robust and substantial increase in conflict risk in the period immediately following a change in the ethnic group holding presidency. The effect is greatest for elections held in the aftermath of war and it gradually decreases over time.

AB - This paper documents a substantial positive effect on conflict onset of post-conflict elections that shift power over the state from one ethnic group to another. The paper argues that commitment problems arising from the presidency shifting between ethnic groups increase the risk of a new onset in countries that have recently experienced conflict. This proposition is tested using a two-way fixed effects model on an original, global dataset of the ethnicities of incoming and incumbent presidents between 1975 and 2010. The result is a robust and substantial increase in conflict risk in the period immediately following a change in the ethnic group holding presidency. The effect is greatest for elections held in the aftermath of war and it gradually decreases over time.

M3 - Working paper

BT - The Head that Wears a Crown

ER -