Inflation Dynamics and Real Marginal Costs: New Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing Industries

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This paper deals with the analysis of price-setting in U.S. manufacturing industries. Recent studies have heavily criticized the ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) to fit aggregate inflation (see, e.g., Rudd and Whelan, 2006). We challenge this evidence, showing that forward-looking behavior as implied by the New Keynesian model of price-setting is widely supported at the sectoral level. In fact, current and expected future values of the income share of intermediate goods emerge as an effective driver of inflation dynamics. Unlike alternative proxies for the forcing variable, the cost of intermediate goods presents dynamic properties in line with the predictions of the New Keynesian theory.
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Volume36
Issue number5
Pages (from-to)779–794
ISSN0165-1889
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012

ID: 43213758