Trump, Condorcet and Borda: Voting paradoxes in the 2016 US Republican presidential primaries

Research output: Working paperResearch

The organization of US presidential elections make them potentially vulnerable to so-called “voting paradoxes”, identified by social choice theorists but rarely documented empirically. The presence of a record high number of candidates in the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries may have made this possibility particularly latent. Using polling data from the primaries we identify two possible cases: Early in the pre-primary (2015) a cyclical majority may have existed in Republican voters’ preferences between Bush, Cruz and Walker—thereby giving a rare example of the Condorcet Paradox. Furthermore, later polling data (March 2016) suggests that while Trump (who achieved less than 50% of the total Republican primary vote) was the Plurality Winner, he could have been beaten in pairwise contests by at least one other candidate—thereby exhibiting a case of the Borda Paradox. The cases confirm the empirical relevance of the theoretical voting paradoxes and the importance of voting procedures.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherMunich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA)
Publication statusPublished - 15 Dec 2016

Bibliographical note

Trump, Condorcet and Borda: Voting paradoxes in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries

ID: 171557063